Arizona Presidential Election Results 2024

14 hours ago

The New York Times

Latest results from 16m ago

Candidate Party Votes Percent Chart showing percent

Donald J. TrumpD. TrumpTrump

Republican Rep. 940,508 50.1%

Kamala HarrisK. HarrisHarris

Democrat Dem. 921,341 49.1%

Total reported

1,877,839

Results timing: Most voters cast ballots by mail, and counting typically takes days. Officials in Maricopa County said full tabulation could take 10 to 13 days.

TucsonPhoenixTucsonPhoenix

Votes reported

Circles show margin for leading candidate in the ballots counted so far.

Estimated margin of remaining votes

Circles show our estimate for which candidate leads in the remaining votes.

Circles show margin for leading candidate in the ballots counted so far.

Votes reported and estimated votes remaining County Margin Votes

Percent of votes in

Estimated remaining votes Maricopa Harris +2 1,120,769 58% 815,000 Pima Harris +25 276,431 58% 198,000 Pinal Trump +17 142,344 60% 94,000 Yavapai Trump +30 86,855 64% 49,000 Mohave Trump +54 75,829 60% 51,000 Coconino Harris +22 48,862 62% 30,000 Navajo Trump +25 33,370 60% 23,000 Yuma Trump +29 25,278 29% 60,000 Gila Trump +37 18,754 63% 11,000 Graham Trump +48 14,240 78% 4,000 Santa Cruz Harris +26 12,327 34% 24,000 Cochise Trump +21 11,906 18% 53,000 La Paz Trump +44 5,865 56% 5,000 Greenlee Trump +39 3,065 81% 750 Apache Trump +25 1,944 5% 38,000

About this race

Mr. Trump won the state in 2016, but it flipped in 2020 to President Biden, who won by a narrow 0.3 percentage point margin. Immigration has been a top issue for voters in the state.

Our live forecast relies on detailed information, like county-level results by method of vote, to make its estimates for Arizona.

Chance of winning

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Very likely Likely Lean Tossup Lean Likely Very likely

Leaning Trump

82% chance of winning

Estimated margin

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates +10+5+5+10

Trump +3.7

Harris +4 to Trump +12

Chance of winning

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Very likely Likely Lean Tossup Lean Likely Very likely

Leaning Trump

82% chance of winning

Estimated margin

Needle chart shows the New York Times forecast Range of estimates +10+5+5+10

Trump +3.7

Harris +4 to Trump +12

Our live forecast relies on detailed information, like county-level results by method of vote, to make its estimates for Arizona.

Estimate of the final margin over time

The lines below show how the reported margin compares with our estimate of the final margin, which includes a shaded range of our model’s uncertainty. As more votes are counted, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow.

NYT estimate Reported vote share

Chart showing changes in the estimated margin over time +10Even+10+20 8 PM

Chance of winning over time

Chart showing changes in the chance of winning over time ; ; 20%40%60%80%100% 8 PM

Share of expected turnout reported

Chart showing changes in the total expected vote over time 20%40%60%80%100% 8 PM

Indicator Weight in current live forecast

Pre-election polls

At the start of the night, our estimate is based on pre-election polls, past election results and demographic data.

39%

Our model

As votes come in, we compare actual results to our pre-election estimates to create a statistical model of the remaining vote.