Will AI Make Universal Basic Income Inevitable?

Explore the fascinating connection between artificial intelligence and universal basic income as ... [+] experts debate whether AI automation will make UBI both necessary and feasible.

If I told you that AI was going to make humans redundant and cause widespread unemployment, you’d probably think that’s a bad thing, right?

But what if the reality is that it’s going to make work unnecessary – and provide all the basic necessities for us to live comfortable lives without us having to work?

That’s the thinking behind the idea that AI will be the catalyst for the introduction of universal basic income (UBI).

The logic goes something like this: If AI can write software, draft legal documents, drive cars and diagnose illness today, what will it be capable of in 20, 30 or 50 years time?

Advocates argue that not only will AI make it necessary to provide some form of UBI, but it will also be the technological leap that makes it possible. But does this idea hold water, or is it just far-fetched (and highly optimistic) thinking?

UBI refers to unconditional payments made to citizens designed to cover or contribute towards the basic cost of living. The idea goes back to the first Industrial Revolution, when there were worries that industrialization would lead to large-scale human unemployment, resulting in civil unrest.

Although that isn’t exactly how things turned out, many countries did subsequently implement various forms of social welfare programs to provide assistance to those on low or no income. This was to try to reduce extreme poverty and the associated problems that come with it.

UBI is different from welfare, however, as it’s available to everyone regardless of their wealth, employment status or income. Proponents say that ensuring a basic standard of living for everyone would alleviate many other problems, including ill health, crime and homelessness. Critics, however, say it could lower the incentive to work and result in a decline in enterprise and productivity.

Experiments with UBI in the US go back as far as the 1960s, and more recently, there have been limited-scale pilots in countries including Finland and Canada.

Today, however, the dawn of the AI age has once again surfaced fears of widespread technology-driven redundancy and unemployment. However, it’s also been posited that the arrival of intelligent machines will make it possible to build the infrastructure necessary for a “post-work” society and administer the vastly complex financial framework needed to make it work fairly and efficiently.

Ok, well, first of all, we have to acknowledge that this is a rather utopian outlook. To believe that it could work, we’d have to take it for granted that many of the challenges currently associated with AI – like hallucination, model collapse and the sustainability problem – will be solved, which is far from a given. But let’s pretend for a moment.

In this hypothetical near future, where AI is reshaping economies and automating many tasks that could previously only be done by humans, productivity is optimized, waste is eliminated, and workflows are streamlined. In short, this means more output is created for less effort, leading to a surplus of value.

This value, so the theory goes, can then be reinvested in social programs like UBI. Imagine, for example, a world where all trains drive themselves. Currently, a lot of the money invested in their businesses by train companies goes towards paying drivers. Additionally, they have to build train cabins that are comfortable for humans to sit in for lengthy periods, implement health and safety measures to keep humans safe, provide them with facilities for their rest and downtime, and so on.

By eliminating this expense, the train company becomes more profitable and, in a future where UBI is a reality, contributes towards providing the now redundant driver (and everyone else) with a basic standard of living.

However, the potential of AI goes beyond making UBI possible (and indeed necessary) because it could also play an important role in its administration. Large-scale social programs usually require a vast administrative framework and comprehensive oversight to ensure they operate fairly, don’t infringe on human rights or privacy, and aren’t compromised by fraud or corruption. Traditionally, this involves implementing expensive and often inefficient layers of human bureaucracy.

AI, however, could automate many of these functions. For example, it could verify eligibility, route payments to the correct recipients, and detect fraud, cutting the need for labor-intensive administration and oversight.

So, while in theory, and given an optimal set of circumstances, it seems that AI could make UBI both necessary and possible – what about in reality?

Well, for a start, there’s uncertainty over exactly how widespread AI-driven unemployment and redundancy will be. Many – including the WEF – predict that while it will lead to the replacement of humans in many roles, new roles for us will also emerge.

Then, there will be political challenges to overcome. As previously mentioned, some are against the “something for nothing” philosophy behind UBI out of fear it will undermine economic productivity and disincentivize work. It’s uncertain whether there would be the will to push the kind of changes that would be necessary through political systems, even if technology does make it possible.

And then there’s the question of whether AI will ever actually be good enough to live up to the claims made about it. Will problems with hallucination and model breakdown be overcome, and will society at large trust it enough to hand over significant control of our industrial and economic activity?

Ultimately, while the dream that humanity will be freed from the shackles of labor and freed to pursue a life of leisure and creativity is attractive, the leap to this utopian state is far from guaranteed.

But that isn’t to say it’s impossible, and if we manage to solve the technological, societal and political factors, AI could be the key to building a world where poverty and destitution are a thing of the past.