NBA picks: Bucks vs. Pacers prediction, odds, over/under, spread ...

Update: Middleton is available for the Bucks and will start, while Antetokounmpo is officially out. The Pacers have climbed to 6.5-point favorites and the total is 223. I still like Indiana as the ATS pick and the over on the total.

The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers will resume their first-round series in the 2024 NBA Playoffs Friday as the matchup shifts to Indianapolis for Game 3. These teams split the first two meetings in Milwaukee and will look to gain the edge after Friday’s contest. In a 1-1 series, the winner of Game 3 usually goes on to win the series.

The Bucks continue to deal with big-time injuries. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains doubtful as he recovers from a calf strain, while Khris Middleton is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Middleton played through the injury in Game 2 but we’ll see if he’s able to go in Game 3. The Pacers are healthy on the day-to-day injury front.

The Pacers are 6-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 223. Indiana is -238 on the moneyline while Milwaukee is +195.

Pick ATS: Pacers -6

The Bucks were an excellent home team this season but struggled on the road. Without Antetokounmpo and Middleton potentially being limited even if he’s available, it’s hard to see Milwaukee mounting much of a challenge in this contest. The Bucks were able to prepare more for Game 1 than Game 2 and it showed, while the Pacers have made an adjustment and started to hit perimeter shots. Indiana went 26-15 at home and was 22-17-2 ATS as the home team. Even though the Bucks have a decent 7-9 ATS mark as underdogs, I don’t see them handling the Pacers tonight. Take Indiana to cover and grab a 2-1 lead in this series.

Over/Under: Over 223

Home overs in Indiana are a thing, with the Pacers going 25-16 to the over on the season. Milwaukee is 17-22-1 to the over as the road team this season. Game 1 went under this number and Game 2 went over, with Indiana’s ability to hit perimeter shots being the difference. I think the Pacers are a more confident bunch at home and should continue to take advantage of the holes in Milwaukee’s defense, which are now starting to show up. Give me the over in this game.